Your collateral trades all weekend. Its price doesn't.
Belay monitors your Stock Token loan against a time-aware health score and messages you when it crosses a threshold — including the Friday cutoff, when the reference price freezes for the weekend.
Wallet address only. No connection, no signature.
Watch my position
Two steps: paste an address, then press Start on the Telegram bot. Nothing to connect, nothing to sign — a bot can only message a chat that has opened it, so that tap is what gives alerts somewhere to arrive.
Pressing Start is what connects the alerts to your chat. Until then, nothing can reach you.
What Belay does not do yet: Belay tells you what to do; you execute it yourself from your own wallet. It never holds your keys, never builds a transaction, and never has permission to move anything.
Reliability: alerts are best-effort. They can be delayed or missed if a data feed, Telegram, or our infrastructure fails. Responsibility for the position remains entirely with you. A short heartbeat message goes out once a day even when there is nothing to report, so silence is never ambiguous — if the heartbeat stops arriving, check the position yourself.
What gets stored: your wallet address, your Telegram chat id, the subscription's state (registered or active), and a resume date if you pause alerts. Nothing else — no account, no password, no signature, no position history.
The weekend gap
Stock Tokens trade all weekend. The price your loan is measured against stops updating Friday evening and doesn't move again until Monday — while the real, tradable price keeps moving the whole time.
When the reference price stops moving, New York time
Friday, T‑90 minutes Last chance to lower your risk. After this the reported price won't move for roughly ±2.6 days.
Monday, open The reported price jumps to meet reality all at once — this is when a loan that looked fine all weekend can suddenly be at risk.
What Belay does
Watches your position always
Belay checks your loan's health continuously, including nights, weekends, and market closures.
It's built specifically for the gap between a price that updates five days a week and a token that trades seven.
Warns you in advance
When your position moves into a risk zone, Belay tells you in plain language — what changed, and why it matters.
You hear about it while there's still time to act, not after.
Hands you the action
Belay states what your position looks like against that market's own liquidation threshold, and what the worst gap on record would do to it. It does not name a move. What to do about it is yours to decide, from your own wallet.
Automated execution isn't built yet.
How it works
You decide the rules. Belay executes them — and every action it composes has to clear three gates before it reaches the chain.
Most of the time, Belay does nothing. Midweek, with the market open and liquidity available, a healthy position needs no intervention — Belay reads the feeds, scores the position, and decides to wait. Deciding to wait is the correct output on most days, and it is most of what the system produces.
Friday afternoon, ninety minutes before the close, the arithmetic changes — not because the price moved, but because time did. Until then, the distance to the next moment the position could be exited with real liquidity was measured in hours. After the close it becomes roughly 2.6 days, and that number is an input to the health score, not a footnote to it. The same position, at the same price, scores worse at 3:30pm Friday than it did at 3:30pm Wednesday.
If the score crosses a line you set, Belay sends you what you cannot easily see for yourself: your LTV against that specific market's liquidation threshold, when the reference price freezes and until when, the worst comparable gap on record for that collateral, and what that gap would do to this position if it repeated. It stops there, deliberately. It does not name a target or suggest a move. Two years of backtesting could not show that acting on such a suggestion pays at the liquidation thresholds most of these markets use, so Belay reports the facts and leaves the decision where it belongs — with you, in your own wallet.
The rest of the loop is designed but not built. In the full version that action would pass three gates before reaching the chain: inside the mandate you signed, surviving simulation against a fork of current state, and finally PolicyGuard. PolicyGuard is an on-chain contract, and Belay's own backend cannot bypass it — so even a fully compromised server could not move your assets elsewhere, raise your leverage, or exceed your caps. That contract is not written or audited yet, which is exactly why this release stops at the message.
Over the weekend the scoring changes. With the reference price frozen, the health score is computed against a stale reference and the distance to the next real exit is measured in days, not hours — so a position that looked fine on Friday can be flagged on Saturday on the basis of time alone. By Monday's open you have had the whole weekend to act on it.
Where the AI is
No model sits in the execution path. Everything that touches funds — the risk score, the rule check, the simulation, the on-chain guard — is deterministic, reproducible, and auditable: the same inputs produce the same action every time, and every action can be replayed afterwards.
The language model does one job, off to the side. It reads news and filings and flags things a price feed doesn't show: an earnings date pulled forward, an investigation, a corporate action. Its output is a flag and a score, and it can only move the system in one direction — more cautious, never more aggressive. It cannot size a position, choose a contract to call, raise a cap, or loosen a threshold.
If it hallucinates, the worst case is that a position is held more conservatively than it needed to be for a day.
What an alert looks like
Plain numbers, one reason, and a link to the protocol where you act. No pre-built transaction, no button that executes anything.
Belay: 0x2222...2222 has crossed the level you asked to hear about. Your LTV: 71.0% Liquidation LTV for this market: 77.0% The reference price freezes at 2026-09-04 18:30 UTC and does not move again until the market reopens. Your collateral keeps trading; the price your loan is valued at does not. Worst move recorded for this collateral over a comparable 2.7 days gap: 16.2% across 90 recorded windows. Repeated now, that would put this position at about 84.7%, against a 77.0% threshold. That is past the point at which this market liquidates. That is the largest move in the history recorded so far, not a limit on what can happen. A worse one has not been observed; it has not been ruled out either. Belay is not telling you what to do with this. It reports; the decision is yours. Belay is read-only. It does not move funds, build transactions, or hold keys. Any change to the position is made by you, in your own wallet. Your position at Aave: https://app.aave.com/ Alerts are best-effort. They can be delayed or missed if a data feed, notification channel, or our infrastructure fails. Responsibility for the position remains entirely with you.
Belay sends at most a handful of alerts per address per day, so a volatile session can't turn into a stream of messages you learn to ignore. If a price feed goes stale or the sequencer stops, you get a degraded-mode notice saying monitoring is impaired — Belay does not guess, and does not go quiet.
What Belay will never do
- Never holds your keys.Today Belay only reads a public address. It has no permission to move anything, because there is nothing to grant it.
- Never picks your trades.Belay reports against the rules you set. It doesn't decide what to buy or sell.
- Never sends you a transaction to sign.An alert is text and a link to the protocol. No pre-built transaction, no deep link that could execute something.
- Never promises the alert arrives.Alerts are best-effort and can be delayed or missed. Liquidation stays possible, and responsibility for the position remains entirely with you.
What's built, and what isn't
Nothing is being monitored today. The read-only half of the loop is written and tested; it is not yet pointed at real positions, and the half that touches your funds doesn't exist at all.
- Not connected Live position data The indexer that reads real positions from the chain isn't wired up, so no address is being watched and signups are closed. Everything below is written against fixture data until it is.
- Built Time-aware health scoring The score accounts for how long the position would be stuck before it could next be exited with real liquidity — which is why a Friday afternoon scores worse than a Wednesday at the same LTV.
- Built Alerts, heartbeat, and Telegram delivery Threshold alerts, degraded-mode notices when a feed or the sequencer fails, and a once-daily heartbeat — delivered over Telegram, rate-limited per address. Sending stays in dry-run until a bot token and a live feed are both configured.
- Not built Automated execution Belay acting on the position itself. It needs PolicyGuard — the on-chain contract that makes the backend unable to exceed your limits — written and audited first, plus session keys and a revoke flow. Until then Belay tells you, and you act.
- Tested, negative Buffer calibration The parameters have now been run against two years of daily data for the covered tickers, and the result does not support the product. Every liquidation in the sample was prevented, but the de-risking cost more than the liquidations it avoided: the policy finished behind doing nothing, by roughly 0.4% a year, in every configuration tried. A period with a gap large enough to change that answer is not in this sample. The case for Belay rests on a regime the data does not contain, and it should be read that way until data with one in it exists.
- Unresolved Issuing entity and jurisdictional compliance Relevant to the execution product, not to read-only alerts: the operating entity, its jurisdiction, and local regulatory clearance are not yet resolved.